The World According to Nick
My take on Software, Technology, Politics, and anything else I feel like talking about.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Election Wrap Up 

I stayed up until midnight last night absolutely glued to the TV watch Fox News. I also had the computer cooking, where I kept track on CNN's map. That map was pretty damn cool, you could actually drill down to the county level. I of course also followed late breaking news and comments on Vodkapundit where I commented heavily and on Instapundit. So this morning will be a Pot Pouri of post election comments.

First of all, this is actually the first time that someone has gotten a majority (greater than 50%) of the votes since 1988, when Bush Sr. won office. If you've forgotten the 1990's, with Perot getting involved, Clinton never got a majority. And of course in 2000, neither Bush nor Gore broke 50%. Of course none of that really matters since it's all decided in the electoral college. Personally I waffle back and forth on whether I like the electoral college. A lot of people in the populous states hate it (like in California and New York). I hate to tell you guys though, it's your own damn fault. California and New York are electoral sluts. They give up their votes for the Democratic candidate so quickly, that they never spend any money on you. Here's a hint. In 2008, fake undecided. Everyone in California and New York just needs to get together, and as a group decide to answer all polls like "I'm so undecided. I just don't know who to vote for. The decision is so hard this year." even though we all know you'll vote for Hillary. You'd be surprised how much attention you get then.

On to last night. The evening started pretty glum for the Bush camp as the initial exit polls showed Kerry way up. Boy were they way off. So why were they off? One explanation I heard was that some of the "exit polling" was actually done by phone. Well duh - ask someone on the phone if they voted and they'll say yes. They may have even intended to vote, but then got scared away by the long lines or bad weather. But everyone wants to say they're patriotic on the phone. The Florida exit polls I think were off for a different reason. Here you have a very large Cuban population. In Cuba - you don't say what you think politically - or you and your family disappear. I'm not saying anything like that happens in the U.S., but you have to remember there is a lot of history, and a lot of bad memories there of their old home. So I have a feeling that they are more likely to either not answer an exit poll, or lie depending on who they think the pollster prefers. Folks - it's a secret ballot for a reason.

I think one of the more interesting races to watch was Wisconsin's. We were a Gore state in 2000 by a very slim margin. A lot of people thought early that Wisconsin would break Bush. I never thought that. I've watched a number of Wisconsin presidential returns and this followed the pattern exactly. Wisconsin returns always start Republican... then gradually pick up Democratic steam and finally break Democrat later in the game. Not only that, but Wisconsin has some of the easiest voter registration laws around. We beg, and I mean seriously beg people to commit voter fraud, it's so easy. And in this race, I think more people were willing to commit fraud for Kerry than Bush. And I do think there was some fraud in Wisconsin.

Now onto the headlines. The Journal Sentinel this morning had a headline reading "All Eyes on Ohio" with a minor one reading "Kerry vows not give up fight" or something to that effect. I guarantee you that had the rolls been reversed, the headline would have read "Kerry Wins" with a minor one reading "Ohio vote may cast doubt" or something to that effect. I wonder who they really wanted to win?

Anyway, those are my thoughts for what it's worth. Now if you'll excuse me, I have to order one of these for Shannon. Au revoir.

Update: This should be extremely revealing... the fact that it took me this long to even remember to talk about this. But who is the real loser this election? John Kerry you say? No. Osama bin Laden. Where was he? Where was the American equivalent of the Spanish train bombing? All we got was some sort of lame video? You're losing your touch Osama... or maybe it's just that you're losing period.

Update II: Instapundit has another interesting theory on why the exit poll data was so skewed towards Kerry:

Perhaps most of them were conducted in cities, not small towns and rural areas, skewing the results toward Kerry. Urban voters are more likely to be Democrats, after all. This is just a guess, though. As far as I know, media outlets haven't published their exit poll methodologies.

Update III: Thanks Jody :)

Comments:

A nice post. A minor point, you've got the definition of plurality wrong.

Plurality - In a contest of more than two choices, the number of votes cast for the winning choice if this number is not more than one half of the total votes cast. (dictionary.com)

What Bush got is a majority of the vote. Both times Clinton won and in 2000 the winner of the popular vote won a plurality of the vote but failed to win the majority of the vote.

  Posted at November 03, 2004 8:06 PM by Blogger Jody  
Damn - I hate when I get minor crap wrong like that. I mean it seriously bugs me.

  Posted at November 03, 2004 9:05 PM by Blogger Nick  
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Name: Nick
Home: Wauwatosa, WI, United States

I'm a Software Consultant in the Milwaukee area. Among various geeky pursuits, I'm also an amateur triathlete, and enjoy rock climbing. I also like to think I'm a political pundit.


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