The World According to Nick
My take on Software, Technology, Politics, and anything else I feel like talking about.
Thursday, July 14, 2005

A Vodka Soaked Prediction 

Stephen Green thinks that he's spotted a tell tale sign from China that aggressive moves are to be expected soon. I have to admit... he may have something there:

If China's economy really has stalled, then it's time to move an Aircraft Carrier Battle Group or four just east of Taiwan. Let me explain.

In a mature, liberal-market economy like ours, the economy grows because people do things they want to do, and enough of us do those things profitably to keep things movin' on up. Our government profits only to the extent that if feels safe spending our tax money.

In an immature, post-Communist economy like China's, the economy grows because the government has decided to let people be just free enough to do a few approved of things to keep things humming. That government profits to the extent that if forestalls the inevitable collapse, be it economic or political.
...
But what happens if China's economy tanks? Well, they'd probably do what most dictatorships do: Send in the tanks.

Usually, one of two groups gets attacked:

1) Some unpopular locals
2) Some unpopular neighbor country

And in that order, too. Hitler went after Germany's Jews long before he struck out at Poland. The Soviets dealt with their kulaks before establishing hegemony over Eastern Europe. When things are bad at home, you persecute some minority to keep The People happy. When that fails, you wage some foreign war to keep them distracted.

After you finish reading the rest of his prediction, head on over and read these excellent posts on China (Part I, Part II, and Part III) I found a while ago through Daily Pundit.

I hope they're wrong.

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Name: Nick
Home: Wauwatosa, WI, United States

I'm a Software Consultant in the Milwaukee area. Among various geeky pursuits, I'm also an amateur triathlete, and enjoy rock climbing. I also like to think I'm a political pundit.


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